Tesla & Over-Automation

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 05/01/2018 at 10:26 • Filed to: None

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Investors and fans of Tesla are anxious to hear what the company has to say about the production ramp of the Model 3, the main driver of future profits and cash-flow, when it releases its first-quarter results on May 2.

Analysts at Bernstein and UBS recently released reports that focus specifically on the problems with “over-automation” of the Model 3 line, production of which is now approximately 2,000 vehicles per week—nowhere near the company’s target of 5,000 vehicles per week.

Founder and CEO Elon Musk, for years one of strongest proponents of a future where there are no people in the production process and !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , is now acknowledging that the optimal level of automation remains a complex balancing act of design, productivity, quality, and human and machine skills.

He recently blamed !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! as the reason for missing Tesla’s output targets. “Humans are underrated,” he tweeted. And Musk !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , “We had this crazy, complex network of conveyor belts… and it was not working, so we got rid of that whole thing.”

In the Bernstein analysis, Toni Sacconaghi and Max Warburton offer some explanation as to why it’s proving so difficult to ramp up production on an overly automated line. Warburton’s background includes time spent benchmarking vehicle-assembly plants and he states that, in attempting to hyper-automate Model 3 production at its Fremont plant in California, Tesla “may have shot itself in the foot.”

“Automation simply can’t deal with the complexity, inconsistencies, variation and ‘things gone wrong’ that humans can,” and “can create quality problems further down the line,” they say. The Bernstein analysts deduce that Tesla’s troubles are because of the complexity of automating final assembly, where the car is put together. This is something that’s been tried before by other manufacturers—such as Fiat, Volkswagen, and GM—and they have all failed. Sacconaghi and Warburton say:

In final assembly, robots can apply torque consistently—but they don’t detect and account for threads that aren’t straight, bolts that don’t quite fit, fasteners that don’t align or seals that have a defect. Humans are really good at this. Have you wondered why Teslas have wind-noise problems, squeaks and rattles, and bits of trim that fall off? Now you have your answer.

The Bernstein analysts point out that final assembly is fundamentally an exercise in flexibility because the process is constrained by the ability to feed the right part at the right time. Humans are able to spot things that aren’t right, stop the process, and try to get them fixed. One of the important ways that simple design contributes to simpler final assembly is in how many parts and how much space is required alongside the assembly line. Robots aren’t as flexible as humans; they aren’t as good as humans at adapting to product variants nor can they handle as many complex movements as humans.

This means that, beyond a certain point, automation can raise costs, and contrary to what you’d expect, not help quality or productivity. Importantly, automation needs to be overlaid on a stable process to ensure that it’s not the errors that are being automated. This will be especially important once machines are learning on their own, because there’s not necessarily a human to notice if an error is being propagated.

As we enter an age of machines that can learn directly from data rather than being programmed by humans, Tesla’s experience with a hyper-automated production process is important to understand. In a more automated future, it’s still vital to appreciate what humans can do better.

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random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 10:35

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So the people who programmed autopilot also programmed the production line?

crowmolly > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 10:40

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This is truly a new low when it comes to panel fit. Blame the robots if you want, but this is really bad. Looks like Ray Charles aligned that hatch with his fucking feet.

e36Jeff now drives a ZHP > random001 05/01/2018 at 10:50

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the autopilot works fine. It’s a combo of the marketing team and the end-user that’s making it look bad. Marketing plays up the zero-interaction bit too much, and the end users ignore warnings about needing to actually steer the car.

random001 > e36Jeff now drives a ZHP 05/01/2018 at 10:52

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In Soviet America, Joke is on YOU!

(I realize that wasn’t as clear as I meant it to be. I was just joking.)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > e36Jeff now drives a ZHP 05/01/2018 at 10:53

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It should never have been called “Autopilot”...

e36Jeff now drives a ZHP > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 10:57

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No, autopilot is a perfect name for it. Much like a plane’s autopilot, it will operate the vehicle, but the person behind the yoke/stick/wheel is still responsible for monitoring it and making sure it is doing what it is supposed to do.

The problem is people treat it like it was named Autochauffeur and just assume it’s going to do everything and they can just read the paper.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > e36Jeff now drives a ZHP 05/01/2018 at 11:00

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“Always keep your hands on the wheel.”

WilliamsSW > e36Jeff now drives a ZHP 05/01/2018 at 11:05

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^^^^

People don’t really understand what ‘autopilot’ means as it relates to aircraft, either.

Pilots go through a LOT of training to understand what autopilot can and can not do - -and to diagnose issues while airborne, for that matter too.

On the ground, though, we just throw them the keys (app?) and tell them “it gots autopilot, on ya go”.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 11:10

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My first job out of college was working as a production supervisor at Harrison Radiator (part of General Motors). The line I worked on was assembly of air conditioning compressors (the V4 FWIW).

Before I arrived, they had spend millions implementing robots doing some fairly simple tasks. Those robots managed to both a) slow the line down drastically AND b) make it less reliable.

Why? For all of the reasons that you describe. But hey, each one took the place of 2 - 4 workers, so monies were saved, so I’m sure some suit higher up got a bonus for that.

MiniGTI - now with XJ6 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 11:12

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Interesting read. And sounds a little like the humans working at GM in the 80s before revamping to more Japanese style methods (see This American Life episode NUMI) where they would just slap parts in and fix it “later” or not.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MiniGTI - now with XJ6 05/01/2018 at 11:35

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Will have to listen to that - thanks!

Here you go: https://oppositelock.kinja.com/step-right-up-and-get-your-authorship-here-1823584361

=)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 05/01/2018 at 11:36

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SAD!

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 12:25

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I worked there for a year, and I could have written a book about that place. It was, ummmm, interesting.

MiniGTI - now with XJ6 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 13:32

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Very interesting. It tells the story of the time GM shut down an entire plant. Fired everybody then rehired a bunch of people ranging from management to common workers and sent them to Japan to visit Toyota. This was the start of the Nova/Corolla.

Nibbles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 13:37

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If the process is repeatable without change, it can be automated.

There is always a difference between “can” and “should” and those differences need to be evaluated at every opportunity.

If a system can perform the work at (or near) 100% resolution then the system should do the work.

No amount of automation will ever completely remove the need for human interaction, as no system can be programmed to overcome every issue.

If an entire process cannot be automated due to circumstances, there is room for evaluating and automating subprocesses to make the entire process, at the least, more efficient.

These are things I hold myself to as I do my job. My job is automating people out of theirs.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Nibbles 05/01/2018 at 14:12

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Getting a process to where it is completely devoid of circumstances is clearly the hardest part.

Those people must really like folks like you... There’s no slowing down progress, and the jobs that can be automated out of existence aren’t exactly enjoyable jobs anyway, but I do feel for people, especially those who have about a decade of their working life to go, who lose their job to “the robots” and are ill-suited to find any other work that pays nearly as well.

Your thoughts on national employment as a whole and the concept of a universal basic income?

Nibbles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 14:32

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Hah, I’m fixing to find out just how much people like me. I’ve successfully automated myself out of a job and have been promoted to a position doing that for other departments. I get to start that in a couple weeks; I’m already playing dumb and getting to know the folks and their processes

As for the jobs that can be automated, they’re not all what you think. I’m automating sysad, change management, release admin and SCM jobs. Stuff people thought were untouchable, and were up until a couple years ago. I’m pretty sure some will consider me the devil soon, which is okay because that was my nickname back in high school and it feels good to go back to that

Oh that last question though. I’ll touch on the easy one first - universal basic income. I think it’s a great theory and we should be testing the ever-loving fuck out of it. The devil’s in the implementation - get that wrong (thanks, Obamacare!) and fuck everything up for a long while.

On the national employment, man, I have weird thoughts on that. Nobody is entitled to a job. If you can’t perform the duties as required you shouldn’t be doing it. Now I know that statement alone would put hundreds of thousands of employees at risk. To tie it into the basic income, I do feel that everyone should have a right to basic amenities. Things like a place to rest your head, a place to stay clean, foodstuffs and a place to learn/apply so you can enter the workforce as an able individual. But then comes the tie-in to affordable housing. I’m still unsure of just what happened but the 900 sq ft apartment I rented for $650/mo back in 2010 is currently going for $1206, nearly double in eight years. For a shithole. Literal shithole. Our roof caved in and black mold got everywhere. Shithole. Twelve-hundred dollars. That’s more than my mortgage. That’s unreasonable and unsustainable. So if universal basic is supposed to provide enough for basic life needs then living prices are going to have to come down. Which really sucks for my equity. I think I’ve lost my train of thought. OH, employment. Yes. Nobody is entitled to work. Here in the Us, nearly every state is “right to work” for good reason. I think looking at unemployment statistics as a social marker is flawed; just because you have a job doesn’t mean things are good. We could have 100% employment rate, where 30% of those are minimum with no opportunity, and that - by current standards - would be great because numbers.

I’d love to see UBI and jobs that focus on quality over quantity. Did I answer your questions or did I over-tangent?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Nibbles 05/01/2018 at 15:18

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That was an impressive over-answer! Like you said, jobs that people thought were untouchable are getting replaced. It seems like, in the not-too-distant-future, there just really won’t be enough decent jobs to go around. At that point, universal basic income seems like it will have to become a thing in advanced societies. So, everyone who wants to could just live within working at a very moderate level (think lower middle class), all needs provided by the government, but those who are motivated to work and have MORE could do that. The transition to such a system is surely a long and complicated one, but it would be a solution to a lot of our homelessness and would take away the stigma from people who do require government assistance to get by.

It seems a great idea in theory, but you do have to wonder how it would actually work in practice. Many people get a lot of their self-worth from having a job. Those who choose, under UBI, to not work (or who want to, but can’t find an acceptable job/vocation/volunteer position) would have a lot of time to fill, and some people aren’t good at that. Seems like problems with obesity and drug addiction (and other addictions) could get worse. Some people, who aren’t good at human interaction, would become more and more isolated from society.

There are always unintended consequences.

I just turned 40, and it’s a very remarkable time to be alive. A lot of the stuff we take as commonplace today seemed pretty unthinkable when I was a kid, and it seems like the pace of change will only increase.

I hope we as a society and a world can adapt in a healthy way that is beneficial to all. Watching Black Mirror has me concerned that we might not...

jimz > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 15:21

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“why is everyone so worried about panel gaps?”

- your average Tesla fan

Nibbles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 15:29

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I’ve always been a big Trekkie. For what it’s worth, I see the transition from monetary-based, working society to merit-based, intelligent society coming. Whether or not we’ll see it realized in our lifetime is up for debate, but it certainly seems to be heading that way and I’d love to be there for it

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 22:08

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I’ve worked in nearly all stages of a product from concept development, refinement, design for manufacturing, validation, post launch support, redesigns. and for a year as a manufacturing engineer. Teslas launch sounds like a giant pandoras box of shit to go wrong.

When i hear people say “well tesla just has to ...” I think that ship sailed was 2-3 years ago.

To try and change in/out equipment and people smoothly on a line that is moving (now 24hours a day) is no small feat. When the was first showed Musk said that the car war being designed from the begining for automation. I am curious how that is affecting them now as they are increasingly relying on people power.

A huge factor in automating equipment is the design cost. The benefit is once the machine is designed it can often be duplicated at a substantially reduced price. this duplication is even more terrifying when it comes to software based systems as the replication has no additional cost.

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/01/2018 at 23:34

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I don’t understand how someone can be okay with a panel gap like the one you posted, especially when you just spent around $100,000. The denial is so unbelievably strong that these customers okay with such a shitty looking car.

I just find that so baffling.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 05/01/2018 at 23:49

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Did you listen to this interview? Long, but I found it interesting. https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-panned-tesla-model-3s-build-quali-1825472446

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/01/2018 at 23:51

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It’s a Model 3, so *just $50k...

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 11:23

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Only problem is my e-Golf, which starts out at around 20k in base Golf form has panel gaps you need a microscope to see. Which is entirely my point.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/02/2018 at 11:31

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Right. Did you listen to the entire interview with Sandy Munro? Long, but I found it pretty interesting.

https://jalopnik.com/engineering-firm-that-panned-tesla-model-3s-build-quali-1825472446

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 12:02

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No I didn’t have time. I watched the video on the build “quality,” and I did read about how gushed over the electronics.

But on his video about the build. I know that in the grand scheme of things panels gaps don’t mean shit. I was more appalled, and Munro seemed just as appalled, at the terrible design of basic safety features like mechanical access points. Having to get a 12v battery to get the frunk open is insane. And not having any mechanical latch in the rear doors is equally insane.

Can you give me a summary about what exactly he was so impressed about with the electronics, and why it seems to downplay the rest of the faults with the car for him?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/02/2018 at 13:18

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Said the electronic control board was just an order of magnitude more advanced than anything any of the other automakers are using - actually mentioned it in the same breath as the one from the F-35. He also was really impressed with how well the car handled and with the chassis, but a lot on top of that just didn’t meet the standards of quality he expects. Materials are good, but actual execution of the build has a way to go. Said that if they hadn’t made some of the mistakes they did, the other automakers would be SOL, but because of the mistakes, it’s giving others time to catch up.

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 14:14

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I find it funny how everyone is latching onto the F-35 comment. Personally I don’t give two shits how well the electronics are designed if the car falls to pieces minutes from the dealership.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/02/2018 at 14:17

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Clearly, but he’s looking to the future and knows that the company that gets the high-tech part right along with the regular “building good cars” part will win.

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 14:22

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And he’s right. But if one piece of the puzzle is missing then the rest doesn’t mean jack. That’s why I don’t care if Tesla got one portion right. Until they can get a whole package together they haven’t accomplished anything.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/02/2018 at 14:32

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What made the interview interesting to me was not any insight into Tesla, necessarily, but how much of an insight it was to the industry as a whole. Tesla is challenging the dominant players, and, succeed or fail, they’ll make automakers better as a whole.

What Tesla and Musk have done is make one of the biggest bets ever in the history of the auto industry. We’ll see if it pays out. I think it is an accomplishment to bring an electric vehicle to market that performs as well as the Model S, but the bigger accomplishment will be building a car company that actually stands the test of time. At the moment, such a future looks very uncertain.

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 15:46

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Well investors continue to invest with their head up their ass, then Tesla should stick around, they’ll be just be saddled with debt forever and will eventually change course because of their debt.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > His Stigness 05/02/2018 at 16:12

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I do wonder how long the loyal followers will stay loyal.

Initial deposits for the Model 3 were taken two years ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

His Stigness > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/02/2018 at 18:48

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I think everyone that has had some kool-aid will never be swayed. But I think some people who put down a non-refundable deposit may be swayed by a fancy new German car that shows up before a Model 3.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 05/03/2018 at 20:34

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elon Musk and tesla remind me of a client I spent last year working for. The guy and lead people were geniuses, but they were all from the software field.

The lead project manager had all the vendors and outside companies togther for a kickoff meeting and goes “well I hope this prototype is just like the final product” there was laughter all around. It took him a minute we were all laughing at him. When he started pressing on the timeline, why 6 months was unrealistic “you do realize the tooling will take at minimum 2 months to iron out, and we haven’t gotten the design down.” His specs werre all in pencil and had no clue that changes to these may require design changes.

I get the same vibe on everything I read about Tesla. It’s why I shutter whenever I hearsomeone say “we need to be lean like a silicon valley startup”